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                    long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines removes the noise from economic data to reveal the underlying trends

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                    covid jul5

                    next monthly chart update:  Aug 4th 2021

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                    Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

                    BC
                    Ontario Canada
                    UK
                    USA
                    World
                    July 5 2021
                    1,7789,80027,020
                    128,990
                    621,000
                    4.4 million
                    June 2
                    1,8079,44027,490
                    128,435
                    655,000
                    4,560,000
                    May 3
                    2,257
                    8,60025,820
                    128,200
                    650,000
                    4,320,000
                    April 1
                    1,668
                    7,96524,070
                    127,460
                    584,000
                    7,700,000
                    March 1
                    1,406
                    7,27022,840
                    127,100
                    570,000
                    2,900,000
                    Feb 3
                    1,317
                    7,68022,260
                    129,500
                    520,000
                    2,730,000
                    Jan 18
                    1,250
                    7,81022,700
                    102,700
                    604,000
                    8,950,000
                    Jan 2 2021
                    1,151
                    5,56019,000
                    139,000
                    763,000
                    4,400,000
                    Dec 16 2020
                    -
                    4,22015,330
                    89,000
                    599,000
                    3,190,000
                    Nov 20
                    -
                    -13,400
                    -396,000
                    2,110,000
                    Oct 20
                    412
                    3,54010,800
                    46,500295,000
                    1,970,000
                    Oct 10
                    374
                    3,5409,840
                    44,450289,000
                    2,090,000
                    Sept 30
                    290
                    3,03810,160
                    44,800270,000
                    1,670,000
                    Sept 20
                    437
                    2,9479,895
                    43,840266,000
                    1,730,000
                    Sept 10
                    277
                    2,9059,440
                    42,200245,000
                    1,440,000
                    Sept 5
                    274
                    2,909 9,460
                    42,120 267,000
                    1,410,000
                    Aug 30
                    216
                    2,9299,450
                    42,230284,000
                    1,380,000
                    Aug 25
                    217
                    2,8689,370
                    42,010269,000
                    1,450,000
                    Aug 20
                    205
                    2,8629,302
                    41,990265,000
                    1,490,000
                    Aug 15
                    204
                    2,8519,100
                    48,600418,000
                    2,100,000
                    Aug 10
                    207
                    2,8529,075
                    48,800377,000
                    2,450,000
                    Aug 5
                    205
                    2,8549,070
                    48,500282,000
                    1,990,000
                    July 30
                    207
                    2,8459,050
                    48,200308,000
                    2,040,000
                    July 25
                    199
                    2,8439,030
                    48,100239,000
                    1,630,000
                    July 20
                    215
                    2,8509,060
                    48,100204,000
                    1,500,000
                    July 15
                    200
                    2,8258,940
                    46,200180,000
                    1,140,000
                    July 10
                    189 2,8208,930
                    46,000175,000
                    1,170,000
                    July 5
                    180 2,8458,910
                    46,000173,000
                    1,170,000
                    June 30
                    177 2,8908,840
                    45,600161,000
                    1,340,000
                    June 25
                    172 2,9208,860
                    44,700141,000
                    1,190,000
                    June 21st 2020
                    Actual Deaths:
                    171 2,657 8,481
                    42,731 122,468
                    472,779
                    June 20 forecasts
                    for Year 2020

                    170
                    2,8109,000
                    46,800145,000
                    1,145,000
                    June 16
                    170
                    2,9409,660
                    48,900140,000
                    905,000
                    June 12
                    172
                    3,17010,200
                    47,400141,000
                    852,000
                    June 9
                    172
                    3,5309,430
                    49,200134,000
                    640,000
                    June 6
                    191
                    2,7709,700
                    45,500127,000
                    525,000
                    June 3
                    197
                    2,5508,470
                    42,500122,000
                    471,000
                    June 1
                    216
                    2,5408,370
                    42,000122,000
                    466,000
                    May 30
                    225
                    2,5307,990
                    41,600121,000
                    428,000
                    May 28
                    217
                    2,4807,870
                    41,100119,000
                    420,000
                    May 26
                    225
                    2,3907,590
                    41,600119,000
                    420,000
                    May 24
                    224

                    7,470

                    120,000
                    420,000
                    May 22
                    223

                    7,300

                    117,000
                    409,000
                    May 20
                    196

                    7,040

                    111,000
                    403,000
                    May 18
                    193

                    7,135

                    110,000
                    406,000
                    May 16
                    180

                    7,125

                    111,000
                    396,000
                    May 14
                    174

                    7,025

                    109,000
                    381,000
                    May 12
                    189

                    6,850

                    105,000
                    386,000
                    May 10
                    222

                    6,900

                    116,000
                    393,000
                    May 8
                    183

                    6,860

                    119,000
                    339,000
                    May 6
                    202

                    6,475

                    103,000
                    352,000
                    May 4
                    200

                    6,000

                    95,000
                    386,000
                    May 2
                    205

                    5,900

                    117,000
                    380,000
                    Apr 30 2020
                    238

                    5,120

                    80,000
                    380,000
                    Apr 28 forecasts
                    for June 21st 2020
                    176

                    3,960

                    70,500
                    314,000

                    TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

                    July 5th 2021 - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

                    "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

                    It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

                    But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

                    Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

                    This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

                    It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

                    From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

                    So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

                    And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15 million remain on the rolls.  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

                    The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

                    The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 561,000 fatalities (thus far).

                    Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

                    Weekly initial unemployment claims reports reveal the Trump Virus caused the economy to shed 75 million jobs.  18 million workers remain on the rolls today.  The TrumpVirus assures business failures will continue thru 2021 as well.  Nominal GDP did not re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.  It is likely this Recovery will last 'til 2023.  And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to recover to its Natural Rate.

                    If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period exceeds -2%.  GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
                     
                    TRI USA long

                    the traditional definitions

                    TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
                    SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
                    DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
                    GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

                    RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
                    EXPANSION PERIOD: 
                    monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

                    STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
                     
                    UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
                    MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
                    WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

                    U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

                    real unemployment rates




                    July 5 2021 (90-day delay waived!) FreeVenue public release of July 5 2021 TRENDLines MemberVenue guidance

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                     90 days too long to wait?  Enjoy real-time guidance charts via Annual-membership special ($25/month); Quarterly-membership for $36/month; or for short-term projects donate $50 for full MemberVenue access from today 'til Sept 30th 2020. (note - sorry, currently not taking new memberships.


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                    send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
                     Last modified:  July 5, 2021  ~  (? 1989-2021 TRENDLines Research)


                    keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


                    u-c
                    thanx

                    Sorry, but my Covid fatalities projection is the only macro economic model presently active in 2021.

                    My Recession Indicator, Realty Bubbles, Peak Oil & Sea Level models may be updated in Oct 2021

                    - so please do not clik on old links on this homepage today

                    u/c

                    PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 SURGES are 90% DONE!
                    FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST:  400,000 WORLDWIDE
                    incl:  USA 7,500 & UK 610 & CANADA 610 incl ONTARIO 540 & BC 22 VICTIMS

                    July 5th 2021 - Based on changing mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects the ultimate 2020-2022 death count due to all wave#1 surges will be 4.4 million worldwide (present toll 4 million + 400,000 future) incl 621,000 in the USA (613,500 toll + 7,500 future);  128,990 in the UK (128,380 toll + 610 future) & 27,020 in Canada (26,410 toll + 610 future) incl 9,800 in Ontario (9,200 toll + 540 future) & 1,778 in BC (1,756 toll + 22 future).

                    The Post-Peak Linearization Model suggested wave#1 was essentially suppressed in the UK & Canada-wide (incl BC & Ontario) after its first surge in mid-2020.  Unfortunately, those early sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing in all four jurisdictions gave rise to resurgences upon each attempt at re-opening.  On the contrary, at no time last year did the USA or Global death curves see material suppression.

                    We are not witnessing second or third waves typically spawned by seasonal relapse or mutated strains.  The mishandling of Wave#1 by almost all jurisdictions - by faulty policy or soft enforcement - surged cases (and hospitalization & deaths) on each occasion of failed re-openings.  Only the rapid deployment of vaccines is saving politicians from themselves.  It appears those jurisdictions attaining 70% first dose penetrations are permanently bending the curve.

                    A pair of risks remain.  Many right-leaning jurisdictions face outbreaks due to their implementing normalization strategies whilst hosting vaccine hesitancy in the 30-50% realm.  And each month the pandemic lingers supports the development opportunity of a variant resistant to present vaccines.

                    Current model runs indicate the UK was the first of our monitored jurisdictions to virtually suppress its Covid19 episode (May 2021).  BC should be clear by this September, while Canada-wide, UK & USA will follow in November.  Ontario in December.  Albeit the worldwide first dose level is only 24% today, the model projects global suppression of Covid19 in January 2022.

                    See website table for archive of all past projections.  The model's chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:


                    www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

                    see weekly text updates at:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

                    WORLDWIDE
                    Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 400,000 Covid19 deaths across the globe before being suppressed in January 2022.  Added to the current toll (4.0 million), the ultimate 2020-2022 fatalities are projected at 4.4 million.  Today's daily-deaths rate (7,900) is down 47% from its January 2021 record high.

                    The model suggests the pandemic's first wave is 90% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 112 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.2% case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today:  Brazil (1,565), India, Russia, Colombia, Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, USA & Mexico.  For context of Trump's containment failure, America comprises 56% of today's world "active" cases but 15% of total deaths albeit only 4% of global population.

                    41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

                    Worldwide
                    mortality rate:  0.05% or 523 deaths/million population

                    USA
                    The model similarly indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 7,500 Covid deaths across America before being suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (613,500), the ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 621K.  Today's daily-deaths rate (278) is 93% below its February 2021 record high.  The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (30), Texas, Missouri, Arizona, California & Pennsylvania.

                    The model suggests the USA's first wave is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

                    It marked the day everything changed.  Just over a year later, the USA has 18% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 15% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15 million remain on the rolls.

                    The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

                    Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

                    USA's mortality rate:  0.19% or 1,851 deaths/million (19th worst in world - behind Peru (0.6%), Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Slovakia, Belgium, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia, Italy, Croatia, Poland, UK, Paraguay & Mexico)

                    UK
                    The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across the UK before being suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (128,380), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 128,990.  The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  There are presently 18 deaths/day.  The high was 1,347/day in January 2021.

                    The model suggests the UK's first wave is again essentially suppressed.  The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 1.1 million UK lives (66 million x 67% x 2.6% case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 8% of today's world "active" cases.  37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

                    UK's mortality rate:  0.19% or 1,931 deaths/million (17th worst in world)

                    CANADA
                    The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across Canada before being mostly suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (26,410), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 27,020.  It reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  There are presently 21 deaths per day - substantially down from the record highs of 175/day in May 2020 & 173 in January 2021.

                    The model suggests Canada's first wave is 98% complete.  The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 446,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

                    Canada's mortality rate:  0.07% or 710 deaths/million

                    ONTARIO
                    The
                    model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 540 Covid deaths across Ontario before being suppressed in December 2021.  Added to the current toll (9,260), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 9,800.  It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 -  when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  There are presently 13 deaths/day - down substantially from the record highs of 62/day in May 2020 & 61 in January 2021.

                    The model suggests Ontario's first wave is 94% complete.  Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

                    Ontario's mortality rate:  0.06% or 630 deaths/million

                    BC
                    The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 22 Covid deaths across BC before being suppressed in September 2021.  Added to the current toll (1,756), ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 1,778.  It indicates BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  There is presently 1 death/day - down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

                    The model suggests the Province's first wave is 99% complete.  Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 40,000 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.2% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

                    BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

                    Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

                    BC mortality rate:  0.03% or 344 deaths/million

                    The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
                    These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

                    There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

                    The chart, underlying stats & commentary of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly at
                     

                    About TRENDLines Research
                    Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.

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