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see daily updates at www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa
Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities
|
|
BC
|
Ontario |
Canada
|
UK
|
USA
|
World
|
July 5 2021
| 1,778 | 9,800 | 27,020
| 128,990
| 621,000
| 4.4 million
|
June 2
| 1,807 | 9,440 | 27,490
| 128,435
| 655,000
| 4,560,000
|
May 3
| 2,257
| 8,600 | 25,820
| 128,200
| 650,000
| 4,320,000
|
April 1
| 1,668
| 7,965 | 24,070
| 127,460
| 584,000
| 7,700,000
|
March 1
| 1,406
| 7,270 | 22,840
| 127,100
| 570,000
| 2,900,000
|
Feb 3
| 1,317
| 7,680 | 22,260
| 129,500
| 520,000
| 2,730,000
|
Jan 18
| 1,250
| 7,810 | 22,700
| 102,700
| 604,000
| 8,950,000
|
Jan 2 2021
| 1,151
| 5,560 | 19,000
| 139,000
| 763,000
| 4,400,000
|
Dec 16 2020
| -
| 4,220 | 15,330
| 89,000
| 599,000
| 3,190,000
|
Nov 20
| -
| - | 13,400
| - | 396,000
| 2,110,000
|
Oct 20
| 412
| 3,540 | 10,800
| 46,500 | 295,000
| 1,970,000
|
Oct 10
| 374
| 3,540 | 9,840
| 44,450 | 289,000
| 2,090,000
|
Sept 30
| 290
| 3,038 | 10,160
| 44,800 | 270,000
| 1,670,000
|
Sept 20
| 437
| 2,947 | 9,895
| 43,840 | 266,000
| 1,730,000
|
Sept 10
| 277
| 2,905 | 9,440
| 42,200 | 245,000
| 1,440,000
|
Sept 5
| 274
| 2,909 |
9,460
| 42,120 |
267,000
| 1,410,000
|
Aug 30
| 216
| 2,929 | 9,450
| 42,230 | 284,000
| 1,380,000
|
Aug 25
| 217
| 2,868 | 9,370
| 42,010 | 269,000
| 1,450,000
|
Aug 20
| 205
| 2,862 | 9,302
| 41,990 | 265,000
| 1,490,000
|
Aug 15
| 204
| 2,851 | 9,100
| 48,600 | 418,000
| 2,100,000
|
Aug 10
| 207
| 2,852 | 9,075
| 48,800 | 377,000
| 2,450,000
|
Aug 5
| 205
| 2,854 | 9,070
| 48,500 | 282,000
| 1,990,000
|
July 30
| 207
| 2,845 | 9,050
| 48,200 | 308,000
| 2,040,000
|
July 25
| 199
| 2,843 | 9,030
| 48,100 | 239,000
| 1,630,000
|
July 20
| 215
| 2,850 | 9,060
| 48,100 | 204,000
| 1,500,000
|
July 15
| 200
| 2,825 | 8,940
| 46,200 | 180,000
| 1,140,000
|
July 10
| 189
| 2,820 | 8,930
| 46,000 | 175,000
| 1,170,000
|
July 5
| 180
| 2,845 | 8,910
| 46,000 | 173,000
| 1,170,000
|
June 30
| 177
| 2,890 | 8,840
| 45,600 | 161,000
| 1,340,000
|
June 25
| 172
| 2,920 | 8,860
| 44,700 | 141,000
| 1,190,000
|
June 21st 2020
Actual Deaths:
|
171
|
2,657 |
8,481
|
42,731 |
122,468
|
472,779
|
June 20 forecasts
for Year 2020
| 170
| 2,810 | 9,000
| 46,800 | 145,000
| 1,145,000
|
June 16
| 170
| 2,940 | 9,660
| 48,900 | 140,000
| 905,000
|
June 12
| 172
| 3,170 | 10,200
| 47,400 | 141,000
| 852,000
|
June 9
| 172
| 3,530 | 9,430
| 49,200 | 134,000
| 640,000
|
June 6
| 191
| 2,770 | 9,700
| 45,500 | 127,000
| 525,000
|
June 3
| 197
| 2,550 | 8,470
| 42,500 | 122,000
| 471,000
|
June 1
| 216
| 2,540 | 8,370
| 42,000 | 122,000
| 466,000
|
May 30
| 225
| 2,530 | 7,990
| 41,600 | 121,000
| 428,000
|
May 28
| 217
| 2,480 | 7,870
| 41,100 | 119,000
| 420,000
|
May 26
| 225
| 2,390 | 7,590
| 41,600 | 119,000
| 420,000
|
May 24
| 224
|
|
7,470
|
|
120,000
| 420,000
|
May 22
| 223
|
|
7,300
|
|
117,000
| 409,000
|
May 20
| 196
|
|
7,040
|
|
111,000
| 403,000
|
May 18
| 193
|
|
7,135
|
|
110,000
| 406,000
|
May 16
| 180
|
|
7,125
|
|
111,000
| 396,000
|
May 14
| 174
|
|
7,025
|
|
109,000
| 381,000
|
May 12
| 189
|
|
6,850
|
|
105,000
| 386,000
|
May 10
| 222
|
|
6,900
|
|
116,000
| 393,000
|
May 8
| 183
|
|
6,860
|
|
119,000
| 339,000
|
May 6
| 202
|
|
6,475
|
|
103,000
| 352,000
|
May 4
|
200
|
|
6,000
|
|
95,000
|
386,000
|
May 2
|
205
|
|
5,900
|
|
117,000
|
380,000
|
Apr 30 2020
|
238
|
|
5,120
|
|
80,000
|
380,000
|
Apr 28 forecasts
for June 21st 2020
|
176
|
|
3,960
|
|
70,500
|
314,000
|
TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020
July 5th 2021 - So how did the USA embark on this historic
crisis? Here's a clue: During a White House Rose Garden
virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox
News host:
"You'll
have packed churches all over the country. It would be a
resurrection of biblical proportions. I would love to have the
country opened up and raring to go by Easter. It would be a
beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's
going to be very hard to start it up again. We can't lose the
advantage we have."
It was on this precise day America
was infected with "the TrumpVirus". On that day the USA had
only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the
world's population.
But it marked the day everything
changed. And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23%
of world's cumulative Covid
cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags? The answer is founded in its
citizenry electing
a reality show celebrity as its President. This business con man's failure to
mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.
Albeit Obama's Homeland Security
Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust
"playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's
National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018. Dr Dennis
Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.
And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in
Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr
Bright were abruptly reassigned.
This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go
away with warm April sunshine". After his "miracle"
failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light
remedies.
It was soon evident many continued to
drink the
Kool-Aid (or bleach?). Prior to flattening their curves, mostly
"red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking &
contact tracing.
From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up
America Again"
campaign was rooted in politics. Despite
his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple
5% GDP growth rates. 2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can
- hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January,
February & March. With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part
of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.
So the
motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to
return to work April 14th is clear. As a ratings savvy guy, he
knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be
announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions). The Q3
GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).
And
evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.
The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31%
pace in Q2. And of
the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15
million remain on the rolls. With no sign of his boasted
V-shaped
Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing
schools to
re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the
postal system for an
electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and
finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on
January 6th.
The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He
desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone)
was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging
the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.
The TRENDLines
Recession Indicator was the
first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real
time. In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity
crisis to occur in
2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt. But that
day was pre-empted by a black swan event: the TrumpVirus - a
crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment &
mitigation failures - resulting in 561,000 fatalities (thus far).
Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool
box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it
is probable the American economy will suffer long-term
consequences. April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22%
was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see
chart below). Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980
downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.
Weekly initial unemployment claims reports reveal the Trump Virus caused
the economy to shed 75 million jobs. 18 million workers remain on the rolls today. The TrumpVirus
assures business failures will continue thru 2021 as well. Nominal
GDP
did not
re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.
It is likely this Recovery will last 'til
2023. And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to
recover to its Natural Rate.
If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have
escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period
exceeds -2%. GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this
to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
the traditional definitions
TECHNICAL RECESSION: Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
SEVERE RECESSION: Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
DEPRESSION: Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
GREATER DEPRESSION: Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)
RECOVERY PERIOD: monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
EXPANSION PERIOD: monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak
STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX): Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
UPPER CLASS: family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
MIDDLE CLASS: family income is among the top 10% of society
WORKING CLASS: all the rest...
U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither
working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are
available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent
past. Discouraged workers a subset of marginally attached,
have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a
job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who
want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a
part-time schedule.
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keywords: projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will
die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa
americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19
pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish
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Sorry, but my Covid fatalities projection is the only macro economic model presently active in 2021.
My Recession Indicator, Realty Bubbles, Peak Oil & Sea Level models may be updated in Oct 2021
- so please do not clik on old links on this homepage today
PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 SURGES are 90% DONE!
FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST: 400,000 WORLDWIDE
incl: USA 7,500 & UK 610 & CANADA 610 incl ONTARIO 540 & BC 22 VICTIMS
July 5th 2021 - Based on changing
mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today's update
of TRENDLines Research's
Covid-19 fatalities
model projects the ultimate 2020-2022 death count due to all wave#1 surges will be 4.4
million worldwide (present toll 4 million + 400,000 future) incl 621,000 in the
USA (613,500 toll + 7,500 future); 128,990 in the UK (128,380 toll + 610 future) & 27,020
in Canada (26,410 toll + 610 future) incl 9,800 in Ontario (9,200 toll
+ 540 future) & 1,778 in BC (1,756 toll + 22 future).
The Post-Peak Linearization Model suggested wave#1 was
essentially suppressed in the UK & Canada-wide (incl BC & Ontario) after its first surge in mid-2020.
Unfortunately, those early sacrifices proved to be in vain. Premature relaxation
of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing &
contact
tracing in all four jurisdictions gave rise to resurgences upon each attempt at re-opening. On the
contrary, at no time last year did the USA or Global death curves see material suppression.
We are not witnessing second or
third waves typically spawned by seasonal relapse or
mutated
strains. The mishandling of Wave#1 by almost all jurisdictions - by faulty
policy or soft enforcement - surged cases (and hospitalization & deaths) on each occasion of failed re-openings. Only the rapid deployment of vaccines is saving politicians from themselves. It appears those jurisdictions attaining 70% first dose penetrations are permanently bending the curve.
A pair of risks remain. Many right-leaning jurisdictions face outbreaks due to their implementing normalization strategies whilst hosting vaccine hesitancy in the 30-50% realm. And each month the pandemic lingers supports the development opportunity of a variant resistant to present vaccines.
Current
model runs indicate the UK was the first of our monitored jurisdictions to virtually suppress its Covid19 episode (May 2021). BC should be clear by this September, while Canada-wide, UK & USA will follow in November. Ontario in December. Albeit the worldwide first dose level is only 24% today, the model projects global suppression of Covid19 in January 2022.
See website table for archive of all past projections. The model's chart, underlying stats
& analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:
www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch
see weekly text updates at: www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa
WORLDWIDE
Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the present
Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 400,000 Covid19 deaths across the
globe before being suppressed in January 2022. Added
to the current toll (4.0 million), the ultimate 2020-2022 fatalities are projected at 4.4 million. Today's
daily-deaths rate (7,900) is down 47% from its January 2021 record high.
The
model suggests the
pandemic's first wave is 90% complete. Troubling as today's ultimate
projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted
by conspirators would have cost 112 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x
2.2% case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The
10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today: Brazil (1,565), India, Russia, Colombia, Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, USA & Mexico.
For context of Trump's containment failure, America comprises 56% of
today's world "active"
cases but 15% of total deaths albeit only 4% of global population.
41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.
Worldwide mortality rate: 0.05% or 523 deaths/million population
USA
The
model similarly indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet
another 7,500 Covid deaths across America before being suppressed in November 2021. Added
to the current toll (613,500), the ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 621K. Today's daily-deaths rate (278) is 93% below its February 2021 record high. The States with the most daily-deaths today
are Florida (30), Texas, Missouri, Arizona, California & Pennsylvania.
The model suggests the USA's first wave is 99% complete. Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
During a White House Rose Garden
virtual town hall on
March 25th 2020, the President proposed packing the nation's churches on
Easter and return to work the following day. It was on this
precise day America
was infected with "the TrumpVirus". On that day the USA had
only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the
world's population.
It marked the day everything
changed. Just over a year later, the USA has 18%
of world's cumulative Covid
cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 15% of worldwide body bags. The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31%
pace in 20Q2. And of
the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the
pandemic during his term, 15
million remain on the rolls.
The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy. He
desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone)
was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging
the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.
Long-term
care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of
Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States. 81% of fatalities
were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.
USA's mortality rate: 0.19% or 1,851 deaths/million (19th worst in world - behind
Peru (0.6%), Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, North Macedonia,
Bulgaria, Brazil, Slovakia, Belgium, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia,
Italy, Croatia, Poland, UK, Paraguay & Mexico)
UK
The model
indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths
across the UK before being suppressed in November 2021. Added to the
current toll (128,380), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 128,990. The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases
sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits. There are presently 18 deaths/day. The high was 1,347/day in January 2021.
The model suggests the UK's first
wave is again essentially suppressed. The
alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 1.1 million UK lives (66 million x 67% x 2.6% case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
The
UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19
deaths (down from 11% in April) and 8% of today's world "active" cases.
37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.
UK's mortality rate: 0.19% or 1,931 deaths/million (17th worst in world)
CANADA
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths
across Canada before being mostly suppressed in November 2021. Added to the current toll (26,410), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 27,020. It reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases
sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits. There are presently 21 deaths per day - substantially down from the record highs of 175/day in May 2020 & 173 in January 2021.
The model suggests Canada's first wave is 98% complete. The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 446,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Canadian
media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect
and under-staffing, so there's no
surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases. 69% of Covid19
victims resided or worked in long-term facilities. 88% of
fatalities were over the age of 69.
Canada's mortality rate: 0.07% or 710 deaths/million
ONTARIO
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 540 Covid deaths across
Ontario before being suppressed in December 2021. Added to
the current toll (9,260), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 9,800. It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially
suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases
sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive
fatality-free day. There are presently 13 deaths/day - down substantially from the record highs of 62/day in May 2020 & 61 in January 2021.
The model suggests Ontario's first wave is 94% complete. Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an
Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care
facilities.
Ontario's mortality rate: 0.06% or 630 deaths/million
BC
The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 22 Covid deaths across BC before being suppressed in September 2021. Added to the current toll (1,756), ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 1,778. It indicates BC's wave#1 was initially
suppressed way
back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily
cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth
consecutive fatality-free day. There is presently 1 death/day -
down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.
The model suggests the Province's
first wave is 99% complete. Note
the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 40,000 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.2% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.
BC exhibits among the lowest fatality,
mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe. British Columbia &
Washington State were the
first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.
Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both
jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.
Credit to BC in being among the first to bar
family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending
multiple long-term residences. Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total
fatalities.
BC mortality rate: 0.03% or 344 deaths/million
The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION
MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization
model. It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent
days & weeks. The graph's data
points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative
death toll on the x-axis. The intersection of their
trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total
deaths. As daily data points are added, a
high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the
trendline to the right
and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.
There is no medical component aside from tracking daily &
cumulative fatalities. This strictly mathematical model analyzes
nuanced gradient changes in
a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders
or citizenry behaviour. This same methodology has been
one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global
& Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004. On request, I can similarly chart any Nation,
State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.
The chart, underlying stats
& commentary of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are
updated twice weekly at
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models
& methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for
policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a
long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989. TRENDLines
removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying
trends. Specialties
include: Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;
Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;
Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;
& national, provincial Party & Presidential political election
projections. Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.
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Google TRANSLATOR |
บาคาร่าฟรี2021 |
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clik to follow @TrendlinesDotCa for new chart alerts |
I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Summer 85% of
visitors were International (120 nations: most from USA,
UK, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan,
India & Singapore) |
Members & Media
with query or comments are welcome to
email
or
skype me (freddyhutter)
for chats, phone or video-cam |
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